Since the start of the year, the outbreak of Covid-19 has affected life across the planet in multiple ways. In addition to imposing massive and far-reaching economic costs, the lockdowns that were instituted worldwide as governments scrambled to control the spread of the virus have caused unprecedented shifts in how people go about their daily lives. Perhaps most importantly, this crisis has left behind a multitude of clues about the possible shape of the future. Although some of the recent changes will fade with time, others will remain preventing life from returning to its old ways once the crisis eases or what has been called ‘the new normal’. These changes have arisen from a variety of causes, including those related to the unfolding of global megatrends, social shifts, infrastructure readiness, consumer values, and economic cycles. But whatever the initial cause is, the current global pandemic is acting as a catalyst, accelerating and multiplying the impacts of changes that were already underway.
Krungsri Research believes that the Covid-19 pandemic will precipitate a huge range of changes in the economy over both the short- and the long-term. If companies stick rigidly to their old ways of thinking and do not adapt to the changing environment, they will eventually see their competitiveness collapse or be forced entirely out of business. Under the new normal, consumer demand and the nature of business competitiveness will be substantially altered. Business strategies that may have been successful in the pre-Covid-19 world, such as spending heavily on marketing, developing new products and services or engaging in cost-cutting exercises, may not now be effective. Rather, businesses need to understand the context of this new environment and how to best adjust themselves to this. In many cases, businesses will need to transform themselves to ramp up their potential and protect from the risk of disruption.
Transforming businesses in responding to the post-pandemic new normal will be a five-step process. (i) Reassessing the new business environment carefully by considering the relative strengths of the different forces acting on businesses. (ii) Reviewing the potential of the current business model whether it immunes to the risk of the business or industry being disrupted in the future. (iii) Redirecting a new course for the business, and in particular building a business model that puts the operation in a superior position relative to its competitors. (iv) Reinventing a business model in a constant process with the emphasis on creating value for customers and establishing competitive advantages in the marketplace. (v) Reforming the organization’s structure, processes and culture to underpin a process of constant innovation for adopting a superior business model.
Covid-19: From Wuhan to the world
2020 began well. It was the start of a new decade and the long-rumbling US-China trade conflict looked as if it might be reaching a resolution. The year was also going to see a presidential election in the US and the holding of the summer Olympics in Tokyo, prompting many to believe that the outlook was distinctly better for 2020 than it had been a year earlier. That was, it looked that way until news began to emerge of a mysterious new respiratory disease that appeared to be spreading rapidly through the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China.
As events transpired, 2020 was going to mark a major break in world history
Chinese authorities made their first official admission that citizens in Wuhan were being infected by a novel infection that attacked the respiratory system at the end of 2019, and the first deaths were recorded at the start of 2020. The first case outside China was diagnosed on January 13 in Thailand and following this, the World Health Organization (WHO) named the new illness ‘Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)’ or Covid-19. The virus quickly spread and before long cases were cropping up across the world, forcing many countries to place a halt on international travel, in particular to high-risk countries. As a result of the new virus’s extreme transmissibility, health services were being overwhelmed (Figure 1). Despite some countries quickly getting a handle on the pandemic, case numbers continue to rise worldwide and as of July 13, over 13 million infections have been recorded and 570,000 lives lost [1]. At present, there is no end in sight to the crisis.

From a public health emergency to an economic crisis
The rapid spread of Covid-19 forced governments worldwide to enact emergency measures as they tried to slow its progress. These moves included halting international travel, enforcing social distancing policies and placing regions or entire countries in lockdown, with the population largely forced to stay at home. Inevitably, this had huge economic repercussions, causing tourism, services and manufacturing to come to a grinding halt, which then had knock-on effects on exports, consumption and investment as businesses large and small ceased operations. The sudden collapse in income across the economy forced businesses to slash their expenditure. This rapidly fed into a cut in payroll expenses, which took the form of a reduction in working hours or for many of being completely laid-off, and so largely without warning, employees found themselves either with much-reduced paychecks or completely without work. In the absence of much business activity, the danger that this situation posed to the financial security of businesses and the general population let governments with no choice but to step in and take a central role in supporting the economy, the financial system and individual incomes. However, despite the extensive role played by governments in many countries, large numbers of businesses have still failed and unemployment registers have exploded in size. The International Monetary Fund2/ slashed its forecast on the world economy into a recession by contracting -4.9% for 2020, compared to growth of 2.9% in 2019. In the case of Thailand, the Bank of Thailand forecasted3/ a fall in GDP of -8.1% this year, which would be more severe than either the -6.9% contraction that followed the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the -2.5% decline in GDP that the subprime crisis caused[4].
The Covid-19 epidemic has turned lives upside down
The new public health measures that have been introduced, especially the extensive lockdowns, have had dramatic effects both on the day-to-day lives of the general population and on how businesses operate. The seriousness of the disease and its high degree of transmissibility have forced people everywhere to adapt to a new reality by avoiding close interactions with strangers. A large fraction of the workers has had to work from home for several months, look for new sources of income, change their jobs, or economize drastically on their spending. In addition, the situation has changed from day to day and new emergency measures such as wearing facemasks, carrying disinfectant gel and avoiding contact with shared surfaces have become simply a necessary part of normal life. Even communications have changed and the need to stay abreast of a rapidly changing situation has forced people to rely more heavily on online information. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis differ from those of other recent outbreaks of disease such as SARS, H1N1 influenza, MERS, Ebola and Zika in three separate ways.

Crisis – Recovery – New Normal
Although the Covid-19 crisis first broke several months ago, many countries are still (as of July 2020) implementing lockdowns, stay-at-home orders and curfews, and restricting international travel and using state power to control the population to an unusual degree. Thus, at the moment, we should consider ourselves as still being at the ‘abnormal stage’ of the crisis.
When the situation begins to improve and the spread of the disease is brought under control, the government will begin to relax the lockdown and allow most businesses to return to their normal activities. This is the recovery stage of the crisis and during this phase of the process, the economy can be expected to slowly begin the journey back to its pre-crisis state, although social distancing measures will need to be maintained and international travel will continue to be strictly managed. Countries will remain in the recovery stage until the disease is under firm control worldwide and a vaccine has been successfully trialed and manufactured, at which point daily life will return to normal, although this will not simply be a rewinding of the clock to the pre-Covid-19 state of affairs but rather the beginning of a ‘new normal’ (Figure 2).
However, although the general trajectory of the crisis and its abatement may be predicted, it is impossible to know when the world will arrive at the stage of the new normal or how intense the crisis may become before then since, although some countries (e.g. China, Japan and South Korea) appeared to have wrestled the disease under control early on and were therefore able to ease lockdowns fairly rapidly, new clusters of infection have been discovered and plans for the easing of epidemic control measures have had to be placed on hold. The speed at which the world is able to move forward to the ‘new normal’ stage in fact depends on three main factors.
Under the likely future scenario, the crisis will gradually ease. Countries in the ASEAN zone, which have mostly been successful in managing the domestic spread of Covid-19, will see their economies return to a more normal state ahead of those in the West. Despite this, individuals will continue to be exposed to the risk of infection until a mass production of vaccine becomes available to ensure widespread immunity, which it is hoped for happening by the end of 2021[7]. This, however, is on the assumption that the novel coronavirus does not mutate into a new and equally (or possibly more) dangerous strain, which the world might then struggle to control for several more years.
If living under the Covid-19 ‘abnormal phase’ lasts for more than a year, this may shape new behaviors and ways of thinking, and these may then displace paradigms that were dominant before the crisis. These new behaviors, beliefs, expectations and so on would then have the potential to exert an influence on government policy and help to fundamentally change the post-Covid-19 business environment (Figure 3).

How will the pandemic shape individual mindsets?
Initially, views about the world will likely change in 3 ways:
How will behaviors change?
Both the general public and businesses need to dramatically adjust their behaviors in response to the spread of Covid-19 but expectations about the role of the state are also shifting. Changes in behavior that are occurring during the ‘abnormal phase’ of the crisis are generally coming about as a result of the increasing value that people are placing on seven different factors (Figure 5).

Not all changes will be permanent
Krungsri Research believes that of the changes in consumer behavior that have occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic, some will turn out to be only temporary, some will last through the mid-term, and some will become permanent.

Business transformation: Adjusting to the post-Covid-19 new normal
The post-pandemic new normal is likely to differ significantly from the pre-pandemic world. Although exactly what form these differences will take is as yet highly uncertain, businesses will need to transform themselves if they are to adapt successfully to what is likely to be a radically different environment. There are five steps to this process: (i) Reassessing the situation; (ii) Reviewing the potential of the organization’s business model holistically; (iii) Redirecting the organization along its future trajectory; (iv) Reinventing businesses in a constant process; and (v) Reforming the organization’s structure, processes and culture (Figure 6).

“The narratives sit in the background and are rarely expressed when decisions are made.”
– Robert J. Shiller, Nobel Prize laureate in Economics & the author of “Narrative Economics”
The extent to which change becomes permanent depends on how far this process is supported by the surrounding business environment. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert J. Shiller has shown how this process and the spread of ideas from one person to the next depends on the way in which ideas are embedded in narratives and how this happens in a way that has many parallels with the spread of contagious illnesses; ideas that are structured into narratives are able to replicate and to spread quickly and widely, and these also tend to be long-lived[12].
Using this framework to look at the Covid-19 crisis, it is clear that the pandemic is not occurring in a vacuum but rather, the impacts of the virus are entangled with other large-scale changes that were already underway before the emergence of the new virus. These are the ‘global megatrends’, and these will play a major role in determining what shape the future takes. The megatrends include technological change, the aging of society, urbanization, superpower conflict, and growing problems with climate change13/, but they are also affected by social movements, changes in infrastructure, consumer values, and economic cycles. Each of these trends will be important and each will have impacts on populations worldwide in the coming period (Figure 7).

The business environment exerts a significant influence over individual and corporate decision-making processes
Looking back at the impact of earlier events, one might take the Great Flood of 2011 as an example. This caused significant damage to property across the central region as it remained submerged for many months. But not long after the floodwaters drained, a rash of new condominium developments appeared in Bangkok and up-country. If one considered just the preceding events, one might be tempted to conclude that the 2011 floods were the principal driver of increased demand for condominiums. However, the flood was not the first major national disaster and these previous disasters had failed to stoke a sudden increase in interest in condominiums because in reality, the latter was caused by the convergence of a wide range of different factors, including increasing urbanization, the greater interest among young Thais in living alone and apart from their parents, the extension of the metro system in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area, and changing tastes and greater demand for modern accommodation in the city center that was priced affordably. Thus, rather than describing the Great Flood as causing the increase in new condominium projects, it would be better to describe it as a trigger that helped to initiate interest and a catalyst that then sustained decision-making processes that were already primed to unfold (Figure 8).
The surge in interest in eco cars from 2009 onwards that followed the hike in oil prices in 2007-2008 followed a similar narrative and can be explained by reference to the same factors, that is, the increased demand for eco cars was also due to urbanization, a greater tendency to live in a single family, and a desire to adopt a modern lifestyle but at an affordable price, though in the case of eco cars, growing concerns with climate change also played a role. Against this backdrop, the need to save money on suddenly escalating fuel prices was effectively pushing against an open door, and auto manufacturers then had to devote their energies to developing this new domestic market.

These global megatrends continue to exert a significant and ceaseless influence over the lives of the general public, notably through technological innovations that have driven social and economic changes, including increasing automation and robotics, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, distributed ledger technologies, and augmented and virtual reality. In addition, superpower conflict continues to disrupt the international scene, particularly the US-China conflict, which has been intensifying in its trade, technological and political manifestations, while at the same time, the impacts of climate change are steadily worsening and becoming more frequent. This has increased public interest in environmental issues, for example in campaigns against single-use plastic, the increased use of non-tariff barriers to trade and businesses’ greater implementation of environmental standards.
In addition, social trends continue to evolve rapidly. In the recent past, society has been strongly affected by the development of social media. This process began with sharing news and opinions online but then developed into using channels such as Facebook, Twitter and the Line application to sell goods, which has helped to keep people permanently connected online. The rising popularity of social networks such as Instagram and Tiktok, which are often used to promote particular lifestyles, has also stimulated a greater desire to follow trends in consumption, eating, travel and entertainment that are set by influencers on these platforms, while the development of the so-called ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO)[14] causes many younger population to compulsively pull out their phones and frantically scroll through their feeds as they try to keep abreast of life online.
Other environmental factors, including the economic cycle, consumer demand, infrastructure development, and events are also constantly undergoing change. These factors all also interact with one another, exerting a strong influence over consumer tastes and decision-making processes. Thus, when evaluating the likely impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is extremely important that these should not be overlooked.
Covid-19 is a catalyst accelerating the impacts of global megatrends
“Narratives that occur together in a constellation may have different origins, but in our imaginations
they seem grouped together in terms of some basic idea, and they reinforce one another’s contagion.”
– Robert J. Shiller, Nobel Prize laureate in Economics & the author of ”Narrative Economics”
As has been indicated above, the Covid-19 crisis is not the sole reason that the ‘new normal’ is emerging but rather, the virus is a catalyst helping to accelerate the impact of changes that were already underway (Figure 9). Of these, the most evident is the impetus the pandemic has given to the increased use of technology, especially to online channels that are now being used extensively for work, shopping, ordering food, paying bills, connecting with friends and entertainment. Over a short period of time, Covid-19 has helped shift many types of modern technology from being a choice to being a necessity that is essential for overcoming a whole host of problems. Now it is normal to use technology in day-to-day life, users are becoming increasingly familiar and at ease with this and so are more willing for modern technology to become simply another, unnoticed part of life. This increased use of technology is one of the megatrends that has been predicted for some time and it is easy to see that greater use of technology will have ongoing impacts over the long-term, eventually becoming a part of the new normal. This will then tend to reduce resistance to continuing technological change and undercut attempts to control its spread.
In addition, the spread of Covid-19 has also stoked an escalation in the conflict between the US and China. The virus first appeared in China before spreading across the world where the situation rapidly deteriorated. In the eyes of the US authorities, China was responsible for imposing the pandemic on the world. Beyond this, China was able to exert control over its domestic infections very rapidly which has helped the Chinese economy to recover fairly swiftly. In contrast, infection rates in the US continue to rise at a dizzying pace and the economy is entering a deep slump. In light of this, it is highly likely that China’s political and economic influence will rise, placing the two countries on an equal footing. In the near future, it is possible that China may even surpass the US. If this happens, it would multiply the two countries’ economic and political conflicts and possibly lead to the development of a second cold war.
The pandemic has also encouraged a stronger interest in environmental, social and governmental (ESG) responsibility and a greater concern with personal healthcare, especially with preventative care. However, the crisis may also have reduced pressures towards ever higher urbanization as people question the wisdom of living in high-density city environments when instead, people can be connected through modern technology, leading urban-type lifestyles but in more remote, rural areas. Trends in globalization may also be affected in complex ways, with international trade possibly leveling off at a new equilibrium while trends in the globalization of services including social media, news, entertainment and education will likely continue to be pushed forward, supported by the greater use of technology.

Post-Covid changes that can be expected to have long-term impacts will typically be those that are driven by forces in the wider environment, including megatrends and changes in social trends, infrastructure, and consumer demand that are being accelerated by the spread of the virus. These include the following:



Post-Covid changes that will have an effect over the medium term but may not exert a strong enough influence to become a part of the new normal will include the following:
Post-Covid changes that will be temporary have been experienced mostly in areas where the lockdown and restrictions on travel forced a temporary halt to activities but which are not affected by any wider issues. Thus, when the situation returns to normal and the pandemic eases, social and crowded activities such as going to department stores, attending meetings, sporting events and concerts, traveling and visiting entertainment spots will all carry on as before.
By ordering changes according to their degree and the length of their effect, it allows players to focus their attention where it is most deserving particularly that are supported by the widest variety of trends since these will have the greatest and longest impact. Next in importance are those changes that are moving in a direction with long-term trends but which are not as widely supported by factors in the business environment. Finally, changes that will only short-live are likely not worth investing in. (Figure 12)
The Covid-19 crisis has not just affected incomes, it has also seriously impacted various aspects in a business model
Evaluating the impacts of Covid-19 on business models using the ‘business model canvas’[15] shows that the crisis has had direct effects on businesses, but because of the interconnections between these effects, each has then had further impacts on other aspects of the business (Figure 13).

The Covid-19 crisis has pushed many business models to extinction
Although the pandemic has invited challenges for businesses, the virus has also reminded businesses to reconsider what is important and what comprises the foundation of business success. For example, in the case of airlines, although the pre-Covid environment was marked by a high degree of competition, the future path for players in the industry seemed secure, given the expansion in the global (though especially Chinese) middle class and the steady growth providing to the tourism industry. Against this background, players thus sought to build competitive advantage by cutting their costs and raising the efficiency and then using this to offer services at competitive prices. However, the pandemic has drawn back the curtain on these processes, revealing how competing solely on price has weakened company’s financial bases and eroded resiliency to the crisis.
Figures 14 and 15 provide an assessment of business models following Alex Osterwalder’s ‘business model portfolio’18/. Osterwalder’s ‘business model canvas’ is based on the relationship between profitability plotted on the vertical axis and risk on the horizontal. The latter reflecting the possibility of negative external events impacting the business or of new players entering and disrupting the market. Using this model, it is possible to classify businesses into four different groups.
Pre-pandemic, airlines would generally be considered to be in the ‘engines at risk’ category but the crisis has imposed huge losses on operators and there is a very real risk of bankruptcy for many. Thus, airlines have now moved to the ‘at risk’ category, indicating that their business model is no longer sustainable and that this needs to be restructured if businesses are to survive.


Other industries that have fallen into the ‘at risk’ group following the outbreak of Covid-19 include the following (Table 3).

Clayton Christensen, the Harvard economist and thought-leader on business innovation[24], shows that business innovation should aim at creating disruptive business models that can provide services that are typically cheaper, simpler, smaller and more convenient to use, rather than simply increasing efficiency, cutting costs or engaging in research and development. An example of this is provided by Netflix, which revolutionized the video industry[25] and in the process killed Blockbuster, an earlier market leader with over 10,000 video rental outlets. In 1997, Netflix entered the market with a new business model, offering a monthly subscription service that delivered videos direct to individuals’ homes through the mail. A decade later, the company turned its business upside down by developing a video streaming service, at which point the video rental market collapsed and a new market for online streaming was born.
Another example of a company that has adjusted its business model repeatedly as it has moved to sustain the scale of its profitability can be seen in the Nespresso coffee capsule brand[26]. Having invented the concept of the coffee capsule and then creating coffee machines that could use these, Nespresso began life as a business to business operation (B2B) trying to sell its products to restaurants and offices, but this proved to be somewhat unsuccessful. Nespresso then reinvented itself as a business to consumer (B2C) operation, selling its goods to the public. The company also separated distribution of Nespresso machines from the capsules, selling coffee makers through retail outlets to increase its customer base because once somebody had a Nespresso machine at home, their only option was to buy replacement capsules directly from Nespresso itself, which could be done in shops, by phone or online. This business model had the advantage of enforcing high switching costs for existing customers if they decided to use a coffee machine made by a competitor and of ensuring recurring revenue from existing customers, who needed constantly to buy new supplies of coffee. However, Nespresso’s patent expired in 2012 and at that point, competitors flooded the coffee capsule market with alternative products, forcing Nespresso to again overhaul its business model as it looked to re-establish its sustainability, and at the start of 2018, the company joined with Starbucks to sell Starbucks-branded Nespresso capsules to the company’s huge number of loyal customers in America and Asia.

Within the Thai context, PTT[27] provides an interesting case study of a company that has overhauled its business model and, in the process, become a market leader. Initially, transnational players, including Shell, Esso and Caltex, had a stranglehold on the service station market because of the greater trust on fuel quality that Thai consumers put in them relative to domestic players. However, through the intelligent use of marketing campaigns upcountry, PTT built national recognition to compete against these transnational players. The most important turning point coming in 2002 when PTT expanded its operations to include activities outside the scope of simply selling fuels. This included partnering with 7-Eleven and launching the Café Amazon brand and not long afterwards, PTT opened service stations offering a full range of services under the brand ‘PTT Life Station’, as well as then acquiring Jet (another service station operator) in 2007, together with its chain of convenience stores, Jiffy. From this point onwards, PTT has consistently maintained its position as the market leader in service stations in Thailand, with its operations being notable for the quality of their non-fuel services and the full range of conveniences.

Osterwalder[28] also notes that there are lessons to be learnt from leading companies in the ‘profit engine’ category and these players often share three characteristics. (i) Engage in a continuous process of reinventing their business model because the rapid pace of technological change is forcing the business world to evolve at an ever-faster rate and often taking completely unforeseen forms. (ii) Compete on establishing superior business models, not through a rat race on new products, services, prices and technologies alone. (iii) Transcend or even tear down industry boundaries as they move out of their earlier area of competition and constantly enlarge the business territory within which they build value. Their action is then not confined in any particular industry or industry forces but being in business arenas that extend beyond traditional industry boundaries.
“All you touch will not turn gold.
Make many small bets to catch
one success”
- Strategyzer,
the author team of “The Invincible Company”
In the post-pandemic business environment, the kinds of business plans that were used earlier may well turn out to be useless because, in a world that is marked by its rapid degree of change and high level of uncertainty, producing forecasts based on assumptions may very well lead to their failure.
In light of the above, Osterwalder[28] suggests that businesses would be better served by making a large number of small investments in a wide range of projects and then gradually raising their involvement as time goes by, rather than making high-stakes, high-value wagers in a small number of investment projects. This way of operating is similar to the investment strategies that venture capitalists use when funding startups. But, in this case, it is used internally within an organization, originating in a bottom-up fashion that involves staffs at all levels. These types of processes can be divided into two classes, which are labeled ‘explore’ and ‘exploit’ strategies.
The ‘explore’ process is similar to organizing a hackathon[29] except that the explore process is ongoing. In this procedure, a large number of business development teams compete against one another by researching, refining and presenting a business model, which will then be tested by the risks that it is exposed to and the potential opportunities of the model to grow in the future in order to screen out unsuccessful projects. Successful contestants return for another round of design and testing (Figure 18). This process places a premium on risk taking and trial and error since in reality, given historical data, it can often be extremely difficult to assess the likely success of a novel business idea. When a proposal has passed a sufficient number of rounds of testing, it will be selected for implementation into a real business or the ‘exploit’ phase of the process, which is on the upper right of the Portfolio Map below.

To help the business grow as rapidly as possible, the development of the ‘exploit’ phase follows the general stages of business development, beginning with forecasting and planning based as far as possible on high-quality historical data, laying out an organizational structure that will support the planned business activities through to execution, and then assessing performance to avoid making mistakes. During the exploit phase of the project’s development, it may be the case that returns are somewhat low at the beginning but this is simply the nature of new ventures. In the end, the project has potential to generate healthy and sustainable profits (Figure 19).

In conclusion, at the heart of the ‘reinvention’ stage is the goal of creating a new business model. Although it may not yet be clear what the current market will be for this, it may have the potential to create its own market in the future. Likewise, in developing new business models, innovations should not be valued through the lens of the old model. New models should not be required to meet the needs of old customers and the threshold of return on investment (ROI). Beyond this, spreading investments through many projects will help to increase the chances of hitting on a new model that has sufficiently high potential to disrupt the market.
“Leaders don’t create growth. Leaders create conditions for growth”
- Strategyzer, the author team of “The Invincible Company”
In order to constantly drive businesses with innovation to build proprietary advantages over competitors, firms need to overhaul all business processes and bring them into alignment so that they all aim at this same goal. If one compares innovation to a tree that needs a sufficient supply of earth, water, light and fertilizer to grow, an organization, in similar, needs to ensure suitable conditions to foster innovation. Osterwalder thus describes three aspects by which the potential to innovate may be judged28/.
The Covid-19 crisis has triggered huge transformations across many different parts of the economy as well as significantly accelerating the impact of megatrends that were already impacting society and the economy. Many of these changes will in the future solidify into the ‘new normal’, most obviously the surge in the use of technology in daily life. In addition, the crisis has also reminded us about our tremendous exposures to risks, ‘black swan’ events, and uncertainty. Businesses that were in the past classified as ‘engines at risk’ may have suddenly fallen into the ‘at risk’ group as a result of the crisis, including airlines, hotels and other businesses reliant on the tourism industry, and retailers and restaurants that provide older, offline-only services. This dramatic change in the environment illustrates how evaluating an organization’s potential with regard only to the current business environment may well be insufficient to the task in dealing with sudden future changes.
Krungsri Research believes that in the coming period, the key to survival for many businesses will be our adaptability and our ability to develop stronger, more vibrant business models, especially with regard to the value propositions in offering a solution to consumer problem. Simultaneously, organizations will need to look for ways to encourage business innovation and to develop new markets. In some cases, companies will need to leave the environments where they used to compete in new arenas. Indeed, the track record of many companies and the recent experience of Covid-19 show that although new business models may not provide huge returns today, they may nevertheless have the potential to transform industries in the future.
The pandemic is providing an opportunity for businesses to reassess ourselves and to start afresh. For example in the tourism sector, when the crisis finally passes, there may be a very fewer number of players left, which will present an opportunity for companies to pivot to creating business sustainability and immunity, rather than simply continuing to compete with one another on price. Players may also consider raising the role of the domestic market as a way of widening a customer base and so increasing resilience to possible future international shocks. As regards the banking sector, the spread of Covid-19 has affected banks by increasing the fragility of our customers’ finances, although at the same time, it has encouraged a much greater awareness of the need to better manage financial risks and a greater usage of online and mobile banking platforms. This constitutes a major challenge for banks, but it will also open the door to a significant opportunity for the banking sector to overhaul itself, and speedup the digital transformation in aiming for supporting customers to manage their finances and risks in a much more personalized fashion.
Beyond this, post-crisis conditions will encourage organizations to engage in major internal reforms, as well as marking a turning point in business transformation and the implementing of internal processes that support the development of new business models and the provision of new value to consumers. Implementing these new business models will then help businesses surpass our competition, progress towards excellence and insulate ourselves from disruption.
“Ideas are easy. Execution is everything. It takes a team to win.”
- John Doerr, a venture capitalist at Kleiner Perkins and the author of “Measure What Matters”
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[1] Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[2] World Economic Outlook Reports (Jun 2020), International Monetary Fund (IMF)
[3] Monetary Policy Report (June 2020), Bank of Thailand
[4] Data on real GDP is from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Comparisons with past recessions are based on the annual year-on-year contractions (i.e. on the four quarters following the initial crisis), which the 1997 crisis runs from 2Q97 to 1Q98 and the 2008 crisis goes from 4Q08 to 3Q09
[5] Ma, C., Rogers, J. & Zhou S. (2020) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Wikipedia website.
[6] Data on the number of European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
[7] From an interview with Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist for the WHO (June 18, 2020), AFP
[8] The Bank of Thailand’s 2020-2022 Strategic Plan 2020-2022: Central Bank in a Transformative World
[9] Kuijpers, D., Wintels, S. & Yamakawa, N. (2020), McKinsey & Company
[10] Williamson, P. & Zeng, M. (2009), Harvard Business Review
[11] Sneader, K. & Singhal, S. (2020), McKinsey & Company
[12] Shiller, R. (2019)
[13] Jirath Chenphuengpawn, Patcharapon Leepipatpiboon and Ruja Adisonkanj (2017)
[14] Herman, D. (2011)
[15] Osterwalder, A. (2005)
[16] From interviews on The Secret Sauce Podcast (2020), Mission to the Moon Podcast (2020) and the 2019 annual financial report of Asia Aviation Public Company Limited (AAV)
[17] Jaiwat, W. (2020) and an analysis of CAPA (2020)
[18] Osterwalder, A. & Pigneur, Y. (2010)
[19] From interviews with the Thai hotel business entrepreneurs
[20] Adhi, P., Davis, A., Jayakumar, J. & Touse, S. (2020), McKinsey & Company and Mission to the Moon Podcast (2020)
[21] Dahl, J., Giudici, V., Kumar, S., Patwari, V. & Vigo, G. (2020), McKinsey & Company
[22] Seric, A., Gorg, H., Mosle, S. & Windisch, M. (2020), McKinsey & Company
[23] Klinchuanchun, P. (2020), Krungsri Research
[24] Christensen, C. (1997)
[25] Downes, L. & Nunes, P. (2013), Harvard Business Review
[26] Amarsy, N. (2015)
[27] Retrieved from https://www.pttplc.com/
[28] Osterwalder, A., Pigneur, Y., Etiemble, F. & Smith, A. (2020)
[29] Hackathons are events at which teams cooperate and generate ideas as they compete to solve problems posed by the event organizers. Generally, hackathons will last for 2-5 days and entrance to the competition may be restricted to within an organization or it may be open to the public. Teams will often be cross-functional, containing a mix of inventors, designers, marketers, software designers, technologists, graphic designers and scientists.