The Fourth Industrial Revolution is precipitating enormous changes in the world of business, and financial institutions will not escape these rising challenges. As they become increasingly driven by technology and innovation, payment systems worldwide including in Thailand, will become more and more dependent on electronic payments, and this will drive banks to shift their operations to a ‘platform business model’. Through this period, financial institutions that are major providers of payment services will find themselves in an ever more unstable position, with the foundations of their business being undermined by new players entering the market as suppliers of platform services, and so to preserve competitiveness, banks are being forced to transform their businesses and to shift as rapidly as possible from their older models of business organization to one in which they too are platform businesses.
“The world is at an inflection point where the effect of these digital technologies will manifest with full force
through automation and making of unprecedented things”
Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (2014)
These remarks by Professor Erik Brynjolfsson and Dr. Andrew McAfee reflect the fact that the world is at a point of intense change, arguably the most profound and radical in the last 200 years, and that the advances in technology and innovation that we are currently witnessing will lead to profound transformations in all aspects of our lives. This is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which the World Economic Forum has correctly described as a period of sustained breakthroughs in technology that are progressing at an exponential rate of growth. As these changes wash through it, all areas of the economy will be transformed as the production and supply of goods and services take on a wide range of new forms (Figure 1). In light of these deep transformations, significant opportunities and challenges lie ahead for business.[1]
Financial institutions around the world are now awakening to and preparing to meet the effects of these technological innovations. These are expected to come in two broad forms. (i) Disruptive innovation in payment systems from distributed ledger technology (DLT) will have deep impacts on the structure of the sector. (ii) Non-disruptive innovation will change how parts of the sector work but banks will continue to play a role in settling financial transactions, although at the same time, new players from outside the banking sector will have an increasingly important presence in the market, which they will enter via channels such as mobile payment systems and the introduction of new payment gateways. Of these two, in the coming period, it is non-disruptive innovation and technology that will play an increasingly important role in how payments are made and that will drive a rise in the use of cashless payment systems. For its part, the development of DLT, or Blockchain technologies, will likely take some time to reach the point that distributed ledgers will be able to be used in payment systems in a way that is sufficiently secure and efficient to handle the vast number of large-scale transactions that occur globally every day and which demand high-levels of speed and liquidity. [2]
The storm of change that is building in the financial sector will likely make its impacts first felt on payment systems, which will be the first outpost of the banking system to fall to the advances of FinTech. FinTech players will use payment services to gather data on consumer behavior and then use this to better understand consumer needs and to build other, better targeted financial services. The outcome of competition over the application of non-disruptive payment innovations may therefore be that in the future, the role of banks within the market may be displaced. Given this, understanding the past and likely future changes to the Thai payment system will clearly be of primary importance in helping financial institutions manage the coming changes to the financial system.
If one looks at the recent history of the Thai financial sector, it appears that global-level changes to the provision of financial systems that have been propelled by technological change and which have in only a few years transformed the provision of payment services have in fact only had a very limited impact on domestic payment systems. This resistance of Thai payments to technology-driven change is reflected in the fact that as of 2017, the value of cash in circulation in Thailand remained at the high level of 11.6% of Thai GDP. The reasons for this are varied but there are four main factors that Influence the rate of uptake of electronic payment services. These are: (i) the level of development of financial systems within a country; (ii) the level of technological development; (iii) the extent of government support; and (iv) the development of new technologies that allow non-bank players to have a greater role in the provision of payment services. Weakness in any of these four areas will tend to hold back the spread of electronic payments and in the case of Thailand, although domestic financial systems are generally well developed, the technological side has lagged behind and is generally at a level that is too low for the majority of consumers to become familiar or comfortable with making non-cash payments. This has been caused by the following.
1) Thai banks’ financial systems are not yet supportive of the widespread use of electronic payment systems, and despite the fact that the competitiveness index of the Thai financial sector has risen steadily in recent years (Figure 2) and that figures from 2017 show that a total of 53.0 million debit and credit cards were in use in Thailand, the volume of payments made by debit cards remains extremely low (Figure 3).
Despite this situation, though, the Thai payment system will increasingly tend to the use of electronic payments under pressure from a number of important factors. Among the latter will be government policy and the entry of non-bank operators to the sector. Prior work by Krungsri Research (available in the report ‘Future Payment Systems’ available from https://www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/d479ca9c-43b5-4d92-9b0a-ee8703a7ed47/RI_13_Payment_EN.aspx) shows that in a number of locations, including China, India and South Africa, these factors have played an important role in shortening the stages of development in the transition to a reduction in the volume of cash in circulation. Government policy, which may work through either direct or indirect measures, can help to create a general environment that builds consumer trust in electronic payments, while the emergence of non-bank service providers typically leads to a significant widening of the choices available to consumers for making payments and this too tends to precipitate changes in consumer behavior. The influence of the most important of these factors within the Thai context is summarized below.
Table 1: Government Policy Facilitating Development of e-Payment Ecosystems
Table 2: National e-Payment Policy
The national e-payment policy encourages the use of debit cards for making payments from the sides of both holders and issuers, and as a result of the policy, the number of debit card machines in use has increased from its earlier total of 474,363 in 2016 to 711,221 in 2017. Notable aspects of the government policy include reducing registration fees for shops and the ‘jaek chok’ initiative, a draw that offers prizes totaling THB 84 m for consumers making payments with debit cards and shops installing debit card POS machines. Through the period during which these promotions were in place, (May 2017-April 2018), the value of debit card transactions increased by 38.3%.
The national e-payment policy (which has run since 2016) has also been an important factor in underpinning the development of electronic payments over the long-term. The policy is helping to encourage electronic payments across the whole of the business value chain, from individual consumers to businesses and the government, through a number of projects, including the ability to make transfers through ‘Any ID’, which at present allows users to transfer money using mobile phone numbers or national identity cards, and plans exist to extend the use of this to include e-wallet numbers, e-mail addresses and cross-bank bill payment. Beyond this, through the issuing of its welfare card for low-income earners, the government is also supporting an increase in the use of debit cards by expanding the extent of contact between financial service providers and the general population, especially in more remote areas (Figure 6). At the same time, commercial banks are steadily replacing ATM cards with ‘chip’ cards(i.e. cards that have a chip in place of the earlier magnetic strip) a process that should be completed by the end of 2019, while they are also developing measures on how to use chip cards and POS machines that will, it is hoped, increase the use of debit cards for making low-value purchases in place of the current tendency to use cash.
2) The increase in the supply of electronic payment services is being driven by non-banks, startups, tech companies and players in the communications sector. FinTech startups are tending to provide payment gateways to connect to payment systems operated by other service providers, offering e-wallet services for the purchase of goods and the payment of utilities, or running payment gateways that make financial transfers through social media channels. Players are also entering the market from other industries by offering e-wallet services, such as the mobile phone operators True, DTAC and AIS, or retailers such as Central. Given their access to a pre-existing customer base, these players will likely enjoy advantages over startups (Figure 7).
3) Consumer behaviors are also tending to support greater use of electronic payments. These include the increasing use of mobile internet, the rising preference for making purchases online and the higher volume of money transferred via mobile phones.
Given this situation, the evaluation by Krungsri Research is that the market for payment systems in Thailand is entering a period of change and that demand for electronic payment options will increase through the next three years, with the consequence that the economy will move to having a lower level of cash in circulation (Figure 12: Scenario II). This process will likely unfold at a faster pace than has been seen in developed economies, with these changes being accelerated by a number of government policies, direct and otherwise, and the increasing role. of non-bank payment service providers within the system. The rising visibility and importance of non-bank payment providers and of e-commerce players is helping to change consumer norms and to speed up the acceptance of electronic payment systems and this could precipitate an increase in the speed of Thailand’s conversion to a low-cash economy as confidence in and demand for cashless electronic payments rises in the coming period, prior to a later fall in demand for cash leading to low level of cash in circulation.(Figure 12: Scenario III).
Within this new environment, competition between providers of electronic payment services is certain to stiffen in the future. Because Thai financial institutions are on a well-developed footing, they will have a more extended period of time during which to adjust themselves to changing market conditions and to maintain their central role as market leaders in the provision of these services, but in the final analysis, only those players that understand the changing business landscape and that grasp the transformations opened up by disruptive technology will be able to maintain and extend their competitiveness.
New payment systems in a changing world
Overall, the sector will be increasingly marked by the provision of electronic payment systems and this realization is driving Thai financial institutions to begin to respond to the changing environment in which they find themselves by developing new electronic payment systems of their own. These have taken several different forms but most financial institutions have established partnerships with FinTech startups that have the ability to develop new payment systems. At the same time, telcos and tech companies have also begun to rapidly expand their operations and to grow their customer base through the introduction of mobile applications.
The rapid growth in the use of mobile-based payment systems that is being seen is transforming the nature of competition in the Thai financial sector, which has moved from its earlier form to one based on the new ‘platform economy’, a development that has the potential to pose major challenges to all businesses. An understanding of this new world and of the drivers of platform businesses will therefore be important for predicting how future competition in the provision of payment services will play out.
1) The difference between ‘pipeline’ and ‘platform’ businesses
Through the twentieth century, the majority of businesses had their roots in the First Industrial Revolution and so they were built on the model of the ‘pipeline business’, under which competitiveness was increased by building supply-side economies of scale. That is, manufacturing efficiencies were maximized to reduce marginal production costs by producing in bulk and because of this, the larger the business, the greater its cost advantage and the more difficult it was for other players to compete against it.
However, the wave of technological disruption that has broken on the first decades of the twenty-first century has changed the business environment and placed technology in a crucially important role within organizational activity. Among these changes, one that has had important impacts on manufacturing is the emergence of the ‘platform economy’. Under this model, building networks that connect those within a platform creates demand-side economies of scale. These economies of scale stem from building network externalities such that demand for goods and services grows with the increasing number of users or consumers itself, and the larger the network, the larger the value that is added by the platform. These networks then become themselves the barriers that hinder or prevent new players from entering the market and competing against existing operators.
The most important differences between pipeline and platform business models lie in the different ways in which value creation occurs within the production chain. Under the pipeline model, there is a linear value chain, which runs from the creation or instantiation of a good or service, by which value is created, through to the end of the production chain, which terminates with the consumer. In the case of platform businesses, value is created in a more complex process involving a value matrix because in this case, value creation may come from producers and consumers, whose roles may flip from one to the other simultaneously. Those interacting on the platform may do so in a wide number of ways, though the exact relationship between a user and a platform will depend on the services provided in that particular instance. Overall, though, platforms will generate value in multiple directions simultaneously, as opposed to the unidirectional value creation of pipelines (Figure 13).
Under production based on earlier pipeline models, it is therefore possible to add value by production at all stages of the value chain, from upstream through to downstream segments and so the basic principle for building competitiveness is to maximize efficiency throughout the value chain by: (i) taking possession of the resources that represent major factors of production and to which competitors lack access, and so blocking their entry to the market; (ii) reducing marginal costs by maximizing economies of scale and maximizing production; and (iii) increasing the efficiency of production throughout the production chain, an important means of lowering manufacturing costs and so of increasing profits. In this way, the whole of the production value chain is under the control of the manufacturer and should production need to be increased to raise profits, this can be achieved through increasing the throughput of factors of production or by using technology to increase output (Box 1).
Production or interaction that occurs under the platform model is fundamentally different to this. Within the ecosystem of platform-based economies, the main organizing principle of production is to maintain and support core interactions, or the activities that are the primary goal of that particular platform. These activities will lead to the exchange of ‘value units’ between users of the platform, whether these exchanges are between producers and consumers or between consumers themselves, though in either case, the aim of the platform remains the same, that is to facilitate the smooth exchange of value units. This then encourages those who are on the platform to engage in ‘core interactions’ with one another, as well as helping to pair producers and consumers in such a way as to maximize their satisfaction by ensuring that each side of the transaction feels that it has benefited from their platform-mediated interaction
Platform business models can be sub-divided into the four major groups of: (i) transactional platforms, which act as middlemen to facilitate business transactions between users, (e.g. PayPal and Uber); (ii) innovation platforms, which operate as the foundations for other platforms (e.g. Microsoft, which largely provides technology to support the services available on other platforms); (iii) integrated platforms, which both act as middlemen for business transactions and offer services associated with innovation platforms (e.g. Apple, Facebook and Alibaba); and (iv) investment platforms, which provide portfolio services for investors (Box 2).
How was the platform business model developed?
There is a widespread belief that whenever a pipeline operation is forced into competition with a platform-based one, the platform business will inevitably win, and indeed, if one looks at those recently successful businesses that have very rapidly become world-leaders, one can see that the majority of them are indeed platform-based operations. This imbalance between the two types of business is grounded in the differences between pipeline- and platform-based production, which rests on the ability of platform businesses to overcome earlier limitations on production in a number of different ways (Table 3).
Industries that are liable to be disrupted by platform-based production tend to fall into the following groups: (i) information intensive industries; (ii) industries that are based on the existence of middlemen but which are at a disadvantage in terms of their growth potential when compared to the rapid demand growth caused by modern technological advances; (iii) highly fragmented industries; and (iv) industries based on asymmetric information. Businesses that are closely regulated may encounter disruption over a longer timescale, such as those in the financial sector, or those that are highly dependent on the use of resources, for example mining and other extractive industries. However, the development of new platforms is eroding the dividing line between different industries and making competition between players from different sectors of the economy easier, and while the finance sector is heavily regulated, it is also an information intensive industry and so the sector faces the possibility of operators being displaced by platform businesses, a situation that in fact could easily come about. For finance, the most threatening competitors are therefore businesses that have access to big data on their customers, and this is something that is typical of platform-based operators.
2) Lesson learn from Alipay: A Payment Platform that has achieved global success
Alipay is an example of a platform-based business that has reached a global level of success, in its case by entering the Chinese finance sector. The company is operated by Ant Financial, a FinTech company that separated from Alibaba in order to offer financial services directly (Figure 14) and is categorized as an innovative platform. The company has an active user base of 450 million people and having beaten Chinese commercial banks to the prize of market dominance, has established itself as the market leader in electronic payment services in China. Ant Financial has expanded the range of financial services that it offers through its platform, and these now include Yu’e Bao, a money market fund, and MYBank, a digital-only bank. The company also operates a related platform that supports its financial operations, this being Zhima Credit, a credit scoring agency. The success of Ant Financial is attributable to two main sets of factors, these being on respectively the demand and supply sides of the business.
Demand side factors
Ant Financial has been able to fill a gap in the market in China very effectively. Before Alipay came on the scene, Chinese payment systems were weak and underdeveloped and they lay outside the reach of much of the (especially rural) population, in addition to neglecting the needs of SMEs. In this environment, it was possible for non-banks such as Alipay to offer very competitive electronic payment services and to move into and occupy a commanding position within this market in a very short period of time. This compares markedly with the situation in developed economies, where traditional banks have long offered well-established payment systems and so in these economies, non-banks typically develop alongside traditional banks, supplementing rather than replacing them. In addition, the rapid expansion of internet access also helped to underwrite Alipay’s position; the number of Chinese internet users grew from 564 million in 2012 to 772 million in 2017 (growth of 36.9%) and this fed additional demand for consumer-friendly electronic payment systems. More broadly, before Alipay began offering its services, Chinese consumers lacked confidence in the existing payment networks because of the inefficient payment infrastructure and weak consumer protection regulations. In light of this, Alipay was able to overcome these limitations and in the process transform the market by offering escrow services. By ensuring that buyers and sellers were both protected, it thus rapidly built confidence in electronic payment services and assured its own success.
Supply-side factors
The strategies for developing the Alipay platform services that Ant Financial initiated were enormously successful and led to a very rapid expansion in the uptake of its services. A number of factors helped to support its dramatic rates of growth (Figure 15).
Conclusion: Financial institutions are entering a period when they will face significant challenges and rising competition from platform-based businesses
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is ushering in a period during which financial institutions will have to overcome intense challenges. Within this broad set of changes, the accompanying spread of technology and innovation-driven payment systems is pushing countries around the world, including Thailand, into an era of upheaval, one in which electronic payment systems will become considerably more widespread. In the face of these changes, financial institutions will have to adapt their operations in two regards. Firstly, they will have to deal with increased competition from non-bank providers of payment services and secondly, they will have to manage the difficulties involved in transitioning to a platform business model. At the same time, the effect of the challenges mounted on financial institutions by new players, almost all of which have built their businesses on a platform model, will be to weaken and erode the advantages that older banks and financial institutions previously enjoyed in virtue of their central position in the provision of payment services. To maintain competitiveness as providers of payment services, financial institutions will need to understand the fundamental changes that are working their way through the economic system, and then to apply the lessons learned by world-leading businesses in competing as platform operators to their own situation as rapidly as possible.
References
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[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
[2] https://www.krungsri.com/bank/getmedia/d479ca9c-43b5-4d92-9b0a-ee8703a7ed47/RI_13_Payment_EN.aspx