EV Price War Will EV Prices Drop Further or Is This the Bottom?  

Executive summary
 

The EV price war in Thailand began in 2022 due to intensifying market competition, forcing EV manufacturers to cut production costs to maintain profitability. Although price reductions aimed to boost EV sales, the Thai EV market in 2024 saw the opposite effect. Some consumers believed EVs were a “soon-to-be discounted” product and expressed concerns over potential future price reductions by automakers. However, signs of a slowdown in Thailand’s EV market competition emerged in early 2025, as EV prices began to stabilize during the Motor Show 2025 (March–April 2025). According to Krungsri Research, the EV price war in Thailand may persist through 2025, driven by moderate-to-high global market competition. In addition, some major EV brands are under pressure to clear inventory to resolve liquidity issues. However, the price war is expected to ease during 2026–2027, supported by two key factors: (i) rising production costs due to offsetting requirements under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 schemes, and (ii) with BEV passenger car prices now lower than those of ICE vehicles, EV automakers face less pressure to deploy intensive marketing strategies to maintain competitiveness.
 

Introduction

In recent years, global demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has surged, driven by government support policies, investments from major automakers, and declining battery costs. These factors have led to a continued drop in EV prices. In 2024, global EV sales rose by more than 25% to 17 million units, accounting for over 20% of total new car sales. Meanwhile, production volumes increased by more than 26%, with China remaining the main contributor to global EV manufacturing, accounting for over 72% of global output. By 2030, global EV sales are expected to continue rising, with their share projected to exceed 40% of total new car sales.^1/

The growing popularity of EVs has driven substantial investment in related industries. Since 2019, EV manufacturers and businesses involved in mining and processing minerals for battery production have begun to outperform traditional automakers and other clean energy technology companies in terms of financial performance and market valuation. Notably, in 2021, the aggregate market capitalization of EV manufacturers surged to a peak of USD 1.6 trillion, with investment returns continuing to rise through 2023. Meanwhile, between 2015 and 2022, investment in businesses related to battery minerals grew more than sixfold.^2/

Nevertheless, the rapid expansion of EV production capacity has led to an oversupply in certain markets, particularly China. This has triggered fierce price competition to capture market share, resulting in a “price war” among global automakers. While price cuts were intended to stimulate demand, they have had broader impacts, including reduced manufacturer profits and weakened consumer confidence, especially among early buyers. This report examines recent trends in EV market competition and price reductions, both globally and in Thailand, to address a key question: When will the EV price war in Thailand come to end?
 

Global EV Market Competition

 

Structural Shifts in the Global EV Market

Global competition in the EV market has intensified, driven by the entry of new Chinese manufacturers. This trend has been largely driven by China’s sustained policy support for the EV industry since 2009, which has encouraged a wave of new market entrants. By 2014, the number of EV-related company registrations in China had exceeded 80,000. To this day, China continues to lead global EV production, with total output reaching approximately 12.4 million units in 2024, accounting for more than 70% of global EV production.

However, the Chinese government has begun to regulate its rapidly expanding domestic EV industry. After years of injecting substantial subsidies to stimulate market growth, the resulting surge in competition among Chinese EV manufacturers has intensified pressure to cut prices in order to remain competitive. In 2022, when the EV price war in China officially began, 95 models saw price reductions. The number of discounted models rose to 148 in 2023 (+55.8%) and further to 227 in 2024 (+53.4%).^{2/ 3/ 4/}

Moreover, intensifying competition in China’s EV market, combined with excess production capacity and signs of demand saturation, has prompted many Chinese automakers to accelerate EV exports to global markets. This shift has reshaped the global EV market structure (Figure 1). In 2015, early EV pioneers such as Nissan, Mitsubishi, and BMW held a combined market share of 55% of global EV sales. By 2023, their share had declined to just 35%, while new entrants captured more market share. For example, BYD’s market share rose to 21%, Tesla’s increased to 12%, and other Chinese manufacturers collectively accounted for 32%.^2/

The surge in EV exports from China has intensified the EV price war across more countries, particularly in developing markets where Chinese EVs hold a significant market share. This is largely due to their lower prices compared to EVs from other countries, especially in the small- and mid-sized BEV segments, where prices are now comparable to, or even lower than, ICE vehicles. This price advantage has enabled China to expand its EV exports to price-sensitive developing countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Mexico.^1/

EV Market Situation in Thailand and the Price War

 

Competitive Landscape of Thailand’s EV Market

Government support through the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 schemes has played a key role in boosting EV sales in Thailand and attracting new EV manufacturers to either establish local production bases5/ or introduce new models to the market. As a result, EV market share has become more distributed among new entrants. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)6/ can be used to measure the level of market concentration and competition in Thailand’s EV market, as follows: 

• EV market competition during 2022–2023 under the EV 3.0 scheme: The scheme supported Thailand’s EV market through subsidies of up to 150,000 baht per BEV passenger car, along with other related tax measures.^7/ These incentives drove BEV passenger car registrations to grow by an average of 524.2% per year, from 1,943 units in 2021 to 75,715 units in 2023,^8/ and intensified market competition, as reflected by the entry of new automakers into the Thai EV market. In 2021, the EV market was highly concentrated, with MG holding a 55.1% share of total BEV passenger car registrations, consistent with a high HHI index of 3,339, indicating low market competition (Figure 2). By 2023, competition had increased, reflected by a decline in the HHI index to 2,382, suggesting moderate competition. New entrants began gaining market share, with BYD capturing 40.2%, NETA 16.9%, and ORA 8.9% of passenger BEV registrations in 2023 (Figure 3).

• EV market competition during 2024–2025 under the EV 3.5 scheme: The scheme continued to support passenger BEV registrations, which rose 52.9%, compared to the same period last year, to 55,818 units in the first half of 2025. New EV brands entering the Thai market, along with existing players with previously limited market share, were able to expand their presence during this period. For example, AION and CHANGAN increased their market shares to 9.3% and 5.2%, respectively. In contrast, some earlier market leaders saw their shares decline, BYD dropped to 35.3%, MG to 10.9%, and ORA to 6.3%. These shifts contributed to intensified market competition, as reflected by a continued decline in the HHI index to 1,608, indicating a moderately high level of competition.

EV Price War in Thailand

 

• Motor Show 2024 (March–April 2024): Chinese EV brands reduced passenger BEV prices by an average of -10.2% compared to prices at the Motor Expo 2023 (November–December 2023). Newly launched models (less than one year old) saw price cuts of around -5% to -8% (Figure 4). Meanwhile, BYD reduced prices of existing models at a rate higher than the average to clear stock; for example, the BYD Atto 3 dropped by -18% to -21% compared to its price during the Motor Expo 2023.
• Motor Expo 2024 (November–December 2024): The EV price war intensified, with most Chinese brands cutting passenger BEV prices by an average of -13.1% compared to the Motor Show 2024, aiming to boost demand amid a sluggish market and fierce competition. The steepest discounts were seen in newly launched models from early 2024, marking their first price cuts in Thailand, with reductions averaging -16.0% to -21.0% — e.g., BYD Seal dropped -19.3% and NETA VII -20.6%. Older models that had already been discounted saw further price cuts of around -11.0% to -16.0%; for example, MG4 Standard Range D (-15.6%), BYD Atto 3 Standard Range (-15.6%), and BYD Dolphin (-11.3% to -13.6%). 
• Motor Show 2025 (March–April 2025): The EV price war began to stabilize, with most Chinese brands reducing BEV passenger car prices by only -2.7% compared to the Motor Expo 2024. This was due to shrinking profit margins resulting from continued price cuts in the EV market, along with requirements under the EV 3.0 scheme for incentivized automakers to begin local production. However, with limited production volumes, most manufacturers have yet to benefit from economies of scale. As a result, most brands maintained passenger BEV prices at the same level as the Motor Expo 2024. Some, however, continued to cut prices for models launched over two years ago to clear stock; for example, BYD Atto 3 dropped -7.9% to -11.1%, and BYD Dolphin dropped -12.3% to -15.5%.

Impact on EV Manufacturers in Thailand

Impact on EV Dealerships

2025, BYD showrooms increased by approximately 47.6% compared to the same period last year,^11/ in line with the company’s average annual sales growth of 67.2%^12/ during 2023–2025.

However, the ongoing price war in global markets has begun to affect some EV dealerships. For instance, NETA’s parent company in China has faced continued losses, while sales in Thailand have slowed. This has led to declining dealer confidence, prompting some to offer price promotions on selected EV models to clear inventory and maintain liquidity,^13/ and remove long-term warranties.^14/ In addition, some dealers exited the market, bringing NETA’s total dealerships down to 53^15/ as of May 2025, from 66 in March 2024.

Impact on Consumers

Although price reductions typically stimulate demand, the opposite effect was observed in Thailand’s passenger BEV market. For example, in June 2024, Chinese EV brands^16/ announced further price cuts, up to hundreds of thousands of baht, just three months after similar discounts during the Motor Show 2024. This led to dissatisfaction among earlier buyers, who felt pressured by dealerships to purchase before the new round of discounts. The move also triggered competitive pricing responses from other EV brands.^17/ As a result, many potential buyers began to delay their purchases, fearing that the models they intended to buy might be discounted further.

Rising consumer concerns during this period led to a sharper decline in passenger BEV registrations in the second half of 2024, contrary to automakers’ expectations that price cuts would help stimulate demand. Between February and June 2024,^18/ BEV registrations fell by -18.9%^19/ compared to the same period last year (Figure 6), and the decline accelerated to -33.5% YoY between August and December 2024. The price war also prompted some buyers to postpone delivery of vehicles booked during the Motor Expo 2024 by 3–4 months, as they waited to see whether Q1 2025 campaigns would offer deeper discounts or additional benefits.^20/

However, BEV passenger car registrations picked up again in early 2025 as the price war began to stabilize. The sharp drop in profit margins earlier limited manufacturers’ ability to cut prices further. This was reflected in the prices of Chinese passenger BEVs at the Motor Show 2025, which fell only -2.7% from late 2024. This rate was significantly lower than the -10.2% drop at the Motor Show 2024 (March–April 2024) and the -13.1% drop at the Motor Expo 2024 (November–December 2024). The stabilizing prices, along with pent-up demand from consumers who had planned to purchase BEV passenger cars since 2024, helped boost registrations in the first half of 2025 by 52.9% compared to the same period last year, to 55,818 units.
 

Krungsri Research’s View: Will Thailand’s EV price war continue from 2025 to 2027, or come to end?

Intense competition in China’s EV market has affected the global auto industry, as Chinese manufacturers offload excess supply, triggering a global EV price war. In Thailand, BEV passenger car sales declined in the second half of 2024, and manufacturers delayed production. To answer the question, “When will Thailand’s EV price war come to end?”, we can analyze both external and internal factors influencing EV prices, as follows.

An analysis of external factors through Porter’s Five Forces framework shows that global EV market competition remains moderately high, with the following details:

• Industry rivalry remains high, as the global EV market still has a large number of active manufacturers. However, competition among producers is expected to ease in the future, supported by several factors: (i) global investment in EV production and related supply chains has started to decline during 2024–2025, (ii) many small-scale manufacturers have exited the market in recent periods, and (iii) some EV brands are facing financial difficulties, leading to business closures. This aligns with the view of the Chairman of Chongqing Changan Automobile, who expects that between 2026–2028, around 60–70% of Chinese EV manufacturers may not survive in the market.^21/ Additionally, He Xiaopeng, CEO of XPeng Motors, anticipates that 2025–2027 will be the “Elimination Round” ^22/ of the EV industry.

• Bargaining power of buyers is moderate. Although the EV market offers a wide range of models from various brands, giving consumers more options, bargaining power of buyers remains constrained by several limiting factors: (i) the declining share of new ICE vehicle models,^23/ (ii) the growing trend of consumer acceptance toward EV technology, and (iii) stricter environmental regulations in certain countries, which are driving consumers toward increased EV usage.

• Bargaining power of suppliers is moderate. Although batteries, the highest-cost component in EVs, remain a specialized technology produced by only a few suppliers, EV manufacturers have increasingly invested in upstream supply chains. This has led to an oversupply of batteries and related minerals,^24/ reducing the bargaining power of existing suppliers. Moreover, when considering other types of components, especially those with multiple suppliers (e.g., body parts, chassis, motors), the overall bargaining power of suppliers remains at a moderate level.

• Threat of new entrants is moderate. Although the market previously saw a surge of new EV manufacturers, the number of new entrants is expected to decline, as profit margins have been continuously squeezed by the price war that began in 2022, raising the risk of losses. Moreover, global EV sales growth has started to slow down, while some countries are beginning to phase out their EV support policies due to the large number of EV manufacturers and the weakening momentum in the EV market.

• Threat of substitutes is moderate. Although the transition toward clean energy vehicles is expected to accelerate in the future, leading more consumers to shift from ICE vehicles to BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs remain highly popular during this transitional phase of the EV industry, which continues to limit the growth of BEV sales.

 

However, an analysis of domestic factors reveals that production costs and pricing will likely encourage automakers to slow down future EV price reductions, as follows:

• Production costs are expected to rise in line with rising local compensatory EV production under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5^25/ schemes. This will support a greater share of locally produced EV sales. However, EVs produced in Thailand are expected to have higher costs than Chinese imports during 2022–2025, due to the smaller domestic market and limited export demand.^26/ As a result, Thai EVs have yet to achieve economies of scale comparable to Chinese EVs, which are produced in much larger volumes. Moreover, under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 schemes, Thai EVs must use locally sourced components, which currently cost about 10–15%^27/ more than those in China. This poses a key constraint for automakers aiming to cut EV prices over the next 2–3 years. Meanwhile, the revised rules under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 schemes allow each passenger BEVs produced for export to be counted as 1.5 units^28/ of compensatory production, rather than the standard rate of 1 unit, encouraging automakers to prioritize exports and helping reduce the risk of oversupply in the domestic EV market, which could otherwise trigger another round of price wars.

• The price of BEV passenger cars in Thailand is on a downward trend and is expected to fall below that of ICE cars, especially Chinese BEVs, which have already been priced lower than ICEs^29/ since 2024. This gives consumers more choices and increases the likelihood of switching from ICE to BEV. As a result, EV manufacturers no longer need to rely on aggressive promotional campaigns to boost sales and compete for market share as they did in the past.

Based on the aforementioned factors, Krungsri Research expects that global competition in the EV market, which remains moderate to high, continues to drive Thailand’s EV price war. In 2025, pressure intensified as major EV makers facing liquidity issues accelerated stock clearance. However, domestic factors, particularly local production under the EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 schemes, which involve higher costs than imported Chinese EVs, are expected to slow the price war. This effect will be more pronounced during 2026–2027, when the volume of locally produced EVs is projected to increase. The easing price war is likely to restore confidence among consumers who had previously postponed purchases, thereby supporting growth in BEV passenger car registrations. Automakers that withstand intense competition are likely to become more profitable as the price war begins to ease.
 

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