Krungsri Research Flash (November 25, 2025)

Krungsri Research estimates that flood-related operational disruptions in the South could cause damage to businesses and service sectors valued at approximately THB 11.8–23.6 billion. 

Current Situation (as of Nov 25, 2025)
 

The flood situation in the Southern region from November 17-25, 2025, has caused damage across 12 provinces. Currently, 9 provinces remain affected: Songkhla, which is the most severely affected, with all 16 districts impacted, especially the key economic area of Hat Yai District, facing its worst crisis in decades due to high water levels and widespread damage. This is followed by Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Phatthalung, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trang, Satun, and Surat Thani. The latest summary of the damages as of November 25, 2025, is as follows:

Rainfall Volume: Accumulative rainfall reached 630 mm in 3 days in the U-Tapao Canal Basin, exceeding the 2010 Flood record (428 mm) (Source: Royal Irrigation Department).

Affected Households: A total of 806,677 households were affected, with over 2.2 million people experiencing hardship (Source: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation). 

Loss of Life: At least 13 fatalities have been reported. (Source: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation).

Daily Damage: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimated economic and tourism losses at approximately THB 1,000 – 1,500 million per day. 

Hat Yai Specific Damage: Initial economic losses are estimated at no less than THB 500 million. (Source: The Songkhla Chamber of Commerce).

Water Supply Infrastructure Damage: The Provincial Waterworks Authority Hat Yai branch water treatment plant was inundated by over 3 meters of water (higher than 2010), haltingproduction and distribution, resulting in a collapse of the water supply system in the Hat Yai municipal area. 

Transportation: Numerous roads and bridges were damaged (Songkhla: 228 damaged roads, 12 damaged bridges), and railway lines were cut in many areas, severely disrupting land transport to the lower South (Source: Songkhla Provincial Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command, and State Railway of Thailand ). 

Agriculture: In Songkhla province alone, over 37,000 rai of agricultural land were damaged (Source: Songkhla Provincial Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Command).

Damages

• Best Case (Minimum Damage): Business and service sectors face operational disruption and recovery for a total of 15 days, projecting a damage value of approximately THB 11.8 billion.

• Base Case: Operational disruption and recovery last 25 days, projecting a damage value of approximately THB 19.7 billion

• Worst Case: Operational disruption and recovery last 30 days, projecting a damage value of approximately THB 23.6 billion.

• Height and Duration of Inundation: Higher and longer-lasting floods necessitate extensive cleaning and electrical/machinery checks, prolonging business resumption. 
• Business Type: Retail/service groups may recover faster. However, damage to machinery, furniture, inventory, or the need for extensive repairs to walls/floors and replacement of equipment/tools can extend downtime, especially for factories/hotels with complex machinery and systems, which may require longer inspection, repair, and new installation times. 
• Access to Assistance: Businesses can recover quickly if the government is prepared and promptly inspects and repairs electricity and water systems, while ensuring the expediting of insurance approval and payouts to provide funds for business restoration.