Macroeconomic environment: Slow global economic growth, recovery in domestic economy
Global economy (2023-2025): The major economies will slow, while trends towards deglobalization are likely to gather strength.
The Thai economy( 2023-2025): The effects of the global slowdown will be countered by recovery in the tourism sector and a rebound in domestic economic activity after the country has fully reopened to foreign arrivals.
Structural changes: Modern technology, servicification, shortening global value chains, ESG trends, and government’s infrastructure investment are the dominant themes for Thailand’s industry outlook.
Modern technology is a key driver transforming Thailand’s industry towards growth sustainability amid competitive pressures from shortening global value chain and regional trade blocs. New technology and innovation will also add greater value to products in the form of servicification. With some structural problems eroding competitiveness of Thai industry, spending on government-backed megaprojects, especially works on EEC-related projects that fall under phase 2 of the Action Plan on EEC Infrastructure and Public Utilities (2023-2027), will provide opportunities for investment in downstream and related industries.
2023-25 Thai industry outlook: tipping towards a gradual recovery
Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-22, Thailand’s industries could be heading for a gradual recovery in 2023-25 but at varying degree. Of the 96 industries covered in this report, 28 are given a “rather positive” outlook. Meanwhile, industries tagged “rather negative” and “negative” outlook numbered at 19 and 1, respectively.
Hits and Misses
With a path of recovery, we select some industries that are expected to benefit from the reopening of the country, demand from downstream industries, modern technology transformation, a strong position in global value chains and national infrastructure development. They include Automobile, Private Hospitals, Industrial Estates, Hotels, Modern Trade, Construction, and Cassava.
However, some businesses, despite gradually recovering, may still face some challenges from sluggish global demands, excess capacity, and other uncertainties.