Thailand Industry Outlook 2021-2023
- This Industry Horizon evaluates the attractiveness of selected Thai industries over the next 3 years. The report considers a range of factors that would influence each industry over this period. These include the broad competitive environment (e.g. trends in trade and the global economy, structural changes occurring at global level, and economic outlook for Thailand), as well as sector-specific variables (e.g. industry structure, Thai industrial competitiveness, and ongoing regulatory changes).
- We identified five industries that would benefit from a cyclical upswing in global manufacturing and trade, accelerating adoption of digital technologies, promoting national infrastructure development, rising online sales and expansion in the logistics sector, and rising healthcare spending. They are Petrochemicals, Mobile Communication, Contractors, Industrial Estate, and Private Hospitals.
- Five other industries that could face major headwinds are Hotels, Housing, Office Building, Automakers, and Auto dealers. Although these industries can look forward to a turnaround in line with the broader economy, the after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will disrupt the recovery. The after-effects include, for example, weaker consumer purchasing power because of job losses and weak income prospects, an increase in people working from home, and fewer foreign tourist arrivals due to excessive concerns about health and hygiene.
Exiting The Great Lockdown: One needle to rule them all?
Global perspective: Different pandemic recovery and growth trajectories for major economies
Mass distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, possibly by 3Q21, would bolster confidence worldwide
The global trading environment is more tense and trade barriers are becoming increasingly common
Global value chains are being transformed to address the COVID-19 impact
The world economy is transitioning to depend less on manufacturing and centering on services
Modern technology is rapidly reconfiguring the industrial sector and has triggered a major structural transformation
Domestic environment: Economic recovery will be buoyed by export sector and government stimulus measures
Thailand strikes vaccine deal to receive 70m doses by mid-2021, sufficient to inoculate half the national population
Pandemic has pushed Thailand to focus on 3 key themes: digital business, medical hub, and smart logistics
- The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Office is keeping its investment target for the EEC zone over the next three years at THB100bn, despite the subdued economic outlook. The EEC issued promotion certificates for 387 projects in the first 11 months of 2020 valued at THB128bn, an increase of 62% YoY and about half of total national investments. This suggests investors still have confidence in Thailand. Of these, THB76bn are foreign investment mostly in the electronics, automobile, and petrochemical sectors. And, total investment in processed food, bio-industry and medical industry reached THB18bn with expectations for a 70% growth in investment by 2023.
Accelerating public-sector investment in infrastructure will induce recovery in the overall industrial sector
Plans to accelerate investments in both traditional and new infrastructure
In the coming years, infrastructure development in Thailand will go beyond simply building roads and bridges. It will encompass new technologies including artificial intelligence, 5G, industrial IOT, EV charging stations, etc.
New infrastructure will collectively help Thai industries navigate through the uncertainties ahead
Digital Park Thailand is a new economic cluster that is strategically-located in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). The aim is to be a prime destination for global digital players and digital biz innovators. The park will offer (i) offer ultra high-speed broadband infrastructure, including an international submarine cable station, data center, and satellite earth station; and (ii) pioneer testbeds and adoption of state-of-the-art digital technologies, Internet Of Things (IoT), and Artificial Intelligence.
Regulatory reforms and the impact on industry
Refineries: Tight supply conditions and cyclical recovery in oil demand will support crude prices
Petrochemicals: Riding on the global upswing in industry
Plastics: Gain from better conditions for downstream industries and government’s investment promotion
Frozen and Processed Chicken: Fueled by recovering economy and supply disruption in overseas markets
Rice: Brighter outlook buttressed by La Niña condition and improved international price competitiveness
Rubber: Robust demand from tire & surgical glove makers; benefit from smaller output in other exporting countries
Oil Palm: Propelled by government support to encourage higher consumption and stabilize price
Mobile Communication: Greater uptake of mobile data services to access the internet and online content
Electronics and Electrical Appliances: Riding on the digitization wave
Private Hospitals: Structural changes underpin stronger demand as operators increasingly focus on partnerships
Medical Devices: Increased awareness of personal well-being triggered by pandemic will stoke greater demand
Pharmaceuticals: Surging demand due to more incidence of ill-health and rising concerns over personal health
Contractors: Driven by government megaprojects, which should pull in greater private-sector investment
Industrial Estate: Looking forward to a turnaround
Power Generation: Attractive investment incentives will support greater investment and larger capacity
Warehouse Space: Encouraged by recovering economic activity and rising prevalence of online shopping
Hotels: Still depressed and will take at least 4 years to return to pre-COVID level
Housing in BMR: A bumpy recovery
Office Buildings: Look for more normal conditions as pandemic winds down
Retail Space: Embracing modernization programs to respond to changing consumer lifestyles
Modern Trade: Prime beneficiaries of recovering economy and unusually-large government stimulus packages
Automobiles: Brace for recovery, but high household debt and still-tight lending environment might cap growth