A new journey begins
Several vaccines in advanced clinical trials to determine if they are effective and safe for human use
213 vaccine candidates heat up the race with 35 in clinical tests, including 8 in Phase III trials
Coronavirus vaccine trials fast-tracked to 12-18 months against normal timeline of 10 years
China (in August) and the UAE (in September) proceeded to grant 3 vaccine developers the Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) to produce vaccines for limited use, while maintaining safety and efficacy standards. Optimistic vaccine news would support sentiment.
World trade and output are close to pre-pandemic levels but another lockdown will disrupt recovery trajectory
Thailand is adapting to the COVID-era and still-strict social distancing rules as business activity picks up
Industrial activity continues to contract but is in better shape; Electrical Appliances outperform
Out of 10 major sectors, only three industries – Electrical Appliances, Chemicals, and IC & Semiconductors – avoided an output recession. Production in the other major industries continued to contract, albeit it is improving. The HDD industry was surprisingly weak as it registers a larger contraction, possibly because demand for computer equipment had surged earlier but subsequently fell because of work-from-home trend.
Sporadic recovery in services industry
The Finance & Insurance sector has been surprisingly strong, boosted by stronger credit growth due to the debt holiday scheme. Wholesale & Retail trade is picking up and heading towards positive growth territory, boosted by successful reopening at home. Real estate market is firmer because many developers are offering attractive sales campaigns, including discounted prices, to run down inventories and maintain cash flow.
Automobile: The industry has transitioned through the worst in the current cycle
Outlook is less severe than expected; we estimate a smaller drop in output this year
Real estate for sale: New normal prompts changes to business plans and development portfolios
Developers are slowing work on new projects and shifting focus to townhouses where sales backed by real demand
Real estate for rent: Retail space tenants are moving online and downsizing rental space
Occupancy rate will drop as some retailers have been forced to cease operations or reduce total rental space
Hotel: Takes a nosedive with zero foreign tourist arrivals for five consecutive months up to August
Thailand may extend domestic tourism measures as participation has been low & concentrated in certain areas
The government may extend the ‘We travel together’ campaign to the end of the high tourist season due to weaker-than-expected response, to support a recovery in the hotel business (especially in secondary provinces). Occupancy rates remain low and there have been fewer registrations for the campaign than expected. Only 1,200,000 room nights have been redeemed from a total of 5 million room nights available (Source: TAT 28 September 2020). In addition, the government has offered additional tourism incentives (effective September 1) such as an increase in eligible stay from 5 days to 10 days and refund for air tickets to THB2,000 from THB1,000.
Special Tourist Visa (STV) eases quarantine restrictions for long-stay visitors
Private Hospital: Improved COVID-19 situation and stimulus measures could attract more medical tourists
Modern Trade: Online shopping activity has increased
Retail sales to improve driven by consumption stimulus measures and rising online purchases
Department stores are focusing on growing online sales, which is expected to jump by 47% this year
Thailand: Four segments in E-commerce landscape
Transportation: Domestic travel picks up, boosted by easing pandemic situation and extra holidays
Increased online shopping activity has created new opportunities for delivery companies
Airlines travel has picked up again but there is lingering pandemic impact
IATA says world passenger traffic will return to pre-pandemic level by 2023; others see a delayed recovery
Domestic routes are only at 50% of capacity
Government measures to ease financial burden of Thai airlines and mitigate risk of drastic cost-cuts
Construction: Public construction recovers but private construction activity remains weak
Revenues will grow at slower pace in 2020 amid intense competition
Industrial Estate: Land sales have dropped along with construction of industrial and factory space
Rice: Exports will tumble due to higher prices, changing consumer taste, and China’s efforts to run down stock
Rubber: Exports of ribbed smoked sheet and technically specified rubber slumped but latex shipment has risen
Chicken: Sales of frozen chicken spiked due to food safety claims and it is considered a direct substitute for pork