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Industry Horizon (April 2022)
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Industry Horizon (April 2022)
26 April 2022
By
Industry Team
War in Ukraine, tougher sanctions, and more retaliatory measures increase concerns over inflation and economic growth, raised risk of global stagflation
The impact of the Ukraine war on Thai industrial outlook depending on the severity and duration of sanctions and war
Russia-Ukraine crisis could hurt economic and industrial outlook via
four main channels:
trade & logistics, energy security, prices & inflation, and income effect & capital markets
Limited direct impact via
trade channel
but indirect impact could be significant; war in Ukraine is pressuring global
energy security
Rising
inflation
would hurt purchasing power and slow consumption recovery;
negative income effect
and high market volatility would also hurt trade and tourism
Among emerging economies,
Thailand
depends heavily on oil imports and the war will translate to be upward pressure on production cost for industries especially energy-reliant sectors
Construction is the top loser, followed by transportation due to higher costs; top gainers are oil & gas, sugar and textiles due to price hikes and trade diversion
Construction Contractor:
Coming under pressure from the rising costs of construction materials and transportation, amplifying problems with labor shortages
Road Transport:
Facing high fuel cost and weakened demand on slower-than-expected economy
Sea freight services:
Freight rates remaining elevated all year round
Housing in BMR:
Rising construction costs and slow demand recovery putting pressure on margins
Problems with
chip shortages
extended by the Russia-Ukraine war
Automobile:
Chip shortages undershooting earlier output predictions
Agriculture:
Crops affected by the rising cost of fertilizer and energy including oil palm, tea and coffee, fruits, sugarcane, and paddy; Poultry, swine and other livestock, and fish becoming more expensive with the higher cost of feed
Agriculture:
The rising cost of feed and fertilizer pushing up prices broadly, but beginning to ease in 2H22 on upcoming additional outputs
Hotel:
Russia-Ukraine war dragging on recovery especially in European and Russian markets
Refinery:
Expected increase in gross refinery margins improving business conditions
Industry Horizon (April 2022)
ประกาศวันที่ :26 April 2022
PDF
Tag:
Horizon, Industry, Research
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