Industry Horizon (January 2022)

Thailand Industry Outlook 2022-2024

• Over the next 3 years, the world economy is expected to expand moderately with multi speed of policy normalization. Tailwinds include vaccination progress, relaxed containment measures, reopening effect, and new investment cycle. However, risks and uncertainty persist, most notably from the possible emergence of new Covid-19 strains, supply chain bottlenecks, and side effect from major countries’ policy normalization.

Thai economy: First steps on the path to recovery

• Thai economy is on the path to recovery despite an uneven course. Consumption is recovering unevenly with easing restrictions and stimulus measures. Exports would grow further following global economic recovery and regionalization. Improving economic activity, rising exports, and accelerating infrastructure projects, would lead to a new investment cycle. Tourism shows signs of nascent recovery but will take several years to return to pre-pandemic level. Risks and challenges included COVID-19 pandemic, crisis scars (such as fragile labor market and high debt), domestic political risks, US policy normalization, global supply-side constraints, and geopolitical risks.

Structural changes: Modern technology, servicification, shortening global value chains and infrastructure investment are dominant themes for Thailand’s industry outlook

• Modern technology is a key driver transforming Thailand’s industry towards growth sustainability amid competitive pressures from shortening global value chain and regional trade blocs. New technology and innovation will also add greater value to products in the form of servicification. With some structural problems eroding competitiveness of Thai industry, spending on government-backed megaprojects will provide opportunities for investment in downstream and related industries.

• Following a period of COVID-19 impacts in 2020-21, Thailand’s industries could be heading for a gradual recovery in 2022-24 but at varying degree.
• With a path of recovery, we select some industries that are expected to benefit from global gradual recovery, modern technology transformation, a strong position in global value chains & trade integration and national infrastructure development. They include Automobile, HDD, IC, Private Hospitals, Digital services and software, Power generation, Industrial estate and Medical devices.
• However, some businesses that could face major headwinds especially from COVID-19 variant impacts are mostly service sectors that rely heavily on consumer confidence including Hotel and Housing (notably SME developers).

Key environments influencing the outlook of Thailand’s industry

 
 

Global economic growth will stabilize on unwinding stimulus but rely more on real demand of private sector

 

Global economy shifting from manufacturing to being largely focused on services

Modern technology transforming industry towards growth sustainability

Shortening global value chains adding competitive pressures on industry

Trade integration increasingly tending to take the form of regional trade blocs

Thai economic recovery driven by continuing export growth with a cyclical rebound in investment

Infrastructure investment to be a major driver of domestic economic growth

Thailand’s competitiveness dragged by limitation of innovation development

Regulatory changes affecting Thai industries

Hits and Misses

Hits and Misses (Cont.)

Automobile: Demand increasing on economic recovery both for domestic and export market

HDD: Growing exports driven by demand for data storages in cloud computing and data centers

IC: Exports strengthening on growth in IoT uptake and EVs; chip shortages expected to ease in 2H22 

Private Hospitals: Enjoy a steady growth from a return of foreign patients and healthcare concerns

Digital: Benefit from rising trends of digital transformation and online transactions

Power Generation: Government plan to increase purchases on renewable energy supporting investment especially for VSPPs

Industrial Estate: Demand rising on improving investor confidence especially in the EEC

Medical Devices: Demand for single-use devices remaining strong on health concerns

Construction: Public construction growing further on a progress of megaprojects investment

Modern Trade: Players focusing more on online sales

Electrical Appliances: Demand increasing on improving consumer confidence with a release of new internet-enabled appliances

Cassava: Demand rising from China mostly for use in alcohol, ethanol and animal feed production

Rice: Competition remaining stiff on still-high global stocks

Housing (BMR): Sales increasing slowly with emphasis on usable space of low-rise housing

Hotel: Foreign arrivals expected to meet pre-COVID level in 2025